Why DBS Will Crash to $30!!!
Summary
Master Leong presents a bearish case for DBS Group Holdings, predicting a crash from $60 to $30 by end-2027. While several of his factual claims about DBS financials are accurate — Q4 2025 earnings did fall 10%, book value is around $24, ROE is 16%, and the bank trades at an elevated P/B ratio — his headline prediction of a 50% crash is speculative and presented with more certainty than warranted. His framing selectively emphasizes negatives while omitting that DBS posted record total income, record wealth management AUM, and that analyst consensus remains constructive.
The video contains legitimate financial analysis mixed with fearmongering. Claims about historical dividend cuts, cyclical banking patterns, and valuation metrics are largely verifiable and accurate. However, the bold $30 target price is opinion, not fact, and the title "Why DBS Will Crash to $30!!!" is classic clickbait designed to provoke fear among retail investors holding Singapore bank stocks.
Claims Analyzed (15)
Source Quality
The presenter relies primarily on his own personal trading experience and general market commentary rather than citing specific primary sources. While he references DBS annual reports and quarterly results, he does not provide specific data points with precision. Some financial figures (book value, ROE, payout ratio) are approximately correct but stated loosely. The video is opinion-driven commentary, not rigorous financial analysis backed by cited sources.
Transcript
Introduction
DBS Group Holdings, Singapore's largest bank and a dominant component of the Straits Times Index, has become something of a cult stock among retail investors. After a remarkable multi-year rally that took the share price from around $20 during the COVID lockdown to approximately $60, bullish sentiment has reached fever pitch. Everyone, it seems, is convinced that DBS can do no wrong.
But a closer examination of the fundamentals tells a very different story. The bank's earnings are deteriorating, its dividend payout ratio has been stretched to unsustainable levels, and the cyclical nature of the banking industry suggests that what goes up must eventually come down. Based on a valuation framework grounded in book value and return on equity, DBS appears to be trading at roughly twice its fair value — and a reversion to $30 per share over the next 24 months is a realistic possibility.
Lessons from the COVID Crash: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful
The DBS Trade of 2020
The case for a DBS correction is best understood through the lens of market cycles and the emotional extremes that drive them. During the COVID lockdowns of 2020, DBS plunged from $28 to as low as $16. At the time, the prevailing narrative was unrelentingly negative: businesses could not operate, banks would suffer massive bad loans, dividends were being cut by 20 percent, and conditions were only expected to worsen.
Amid this fear, a contrarian position of 10,000 DBS shares was established at an average price of approximately $20, representing a $200,000 investment. The critics were vocal — commentators on forums like HardwareZone and InvestingNote called the purchase foolish. One prominent commentator even predicted DBS would fall to $6.
When DBS continued to slide to $16, the chorus of "I told you so" grew louder. But within a year, the stock staged a sharp V-shaped recovery, breaking through to $30. At that point, all 10,000 shares were sold for a 50 percent capital gain — a net profit of $100,000.
The PropNex Trade
A similar pattern played out with PropNex, Singapore's largest property agency. When PropNex's shares crashed to $0.50 during the lockdown period — amid predictions that the property market was doomed, transactions had frozen, and the company was "gone case" — a position of 200,000 shares was established at that level, totalling roughly $100,000. PropNex was trading at five times earnings as a net cash company. Two years later, the stock doubled to $1.00, yielding a 100 percent return and another $100,000 in profits.
The Principle
The core lesson from both trades is simple: buy great companies when investors are emotional, pessimistic, and selling indiscriminately. These opportunities only arise because other investors "see nothing but gloom and doom" and sell at depressed prices. Conversely, when optimism reaches extremes and everyone is buying, the prudent move is to take profits.
The Sentiment Shift: From Fear to Greed
The Singapore market has undergone a dramatic sentiment reversal. Two to three years ago, when the Straits Times Index sat at 3,000 points, nobody was interested. The Singapore market was dismissed as a "dinosaur market" — boring, sideways for a decade, good only for collecting a 4 percent dividend yield. Retail investors were pouring money into US markets through discount brokers.
Now, with the STI at 5,000 points, the narrative has completely reversed. Everyone is singing the praises of Singapore blue chips, touting dividends and growth. This is a classic warning signal. When DBS was $20, nobody wanted it. Now at $58 to $60, there is a fear-of-missing-out frenzy with retail investors rushing to buy at all-time highs.
DBS represents approximately 25 percent of the Straits Times Index weighting. As DBS goes, so goes the STI. And DBS, by multiple valuation measures, has reached dangerously elevated levels.
Valuation: DBS at Twice Its Fair Value
How to Value a Bank
Banks are capital-intensive businesses that generate returns from their asset base. The standard valuation framework centres on two metrics: book value per share and return on equity.
The logic works as follows. If a bank has a book value of $10 per share and generates a 10 percent return on equity, it produces $1.00 in earnings per share. An investor demanding a 10 percent return would pay $10 — or one times book value — for this stock. If the same bank can generate a 15 percent return on equity, producing $1.50 in earnings on the same $10 book value, investors might pay up to $15 per share, or 1.5 times book value.
The price-to-book multiple an investor should pay is therefore directly tied to the return on equity the bank can sustain.
DBS by the Numbers
DBS currently has a book value of slightly above $24 per share and is trading at approximately 2.5 times book value. To justify this valuation, DBS would need to generate a 25 percent return on equity. The reality falls far short: the most recent full-year return on equity was 16 percent.
Even that 16 percent figure is inflated by the unusually high net interest margins of the current cycle. A more normalised return on equity for DBS through a full business cycle would be approximately 13 percent, which corresponds to a fair value of roughly 1.3 times book value — or $32 to $33 per share.
At its current price, DBS is trading at approximately twice its normalised fair value. The upside is limited; the downside is substantial.
Three Headwinds That Will Drag Earnings Lower
Headwind 1: Compressing Net Interest Margins
The core of any bank's business is simple: borrow cheaply from depositors and lend at higher rates to borrowers, earning the spread. DBS has benefited enormously from the high interest rate environment of recent years, which widened these spreads to exceptional levels.
But the tide is now turning. The three-month SORA rate is declining, floating rates are coming down, and borrowers are paying less interest. The bank's own management has guided that net interest margins will continue to compress in 2026. This directly erodes the bank's largest revenue stream.
Headwind 2: Rising Bad Loans and Provisions
The deteriorating economic environment is creating stress among corporate borrowers. Companies like AutoBahn and Cathay Cineplex have already gone bankrupt. The expectation is that more small and medium enterprises will follow in 2026, generating increased bad loans across the banking system.
Notably, UOB took the prudent approach of recognising provisions early, effectively delivering the bad news in 2025. DBS, by contrast, has been reluctant to acknowledge deteriorating credit quality. This suggests that 2026 will bring a reckoning, with DBS forced to take significant provisions that will materially hurt reported earnings.
Headwind 3: Wealth Management Contraction
To offset declining interest income, Singapore banks have aggressively pushed into wealth management. At DBS, this segment grew by 40 percent two years ago, 29 percent last year, with guidance for approximately 15 percent growth this year. The deceleration trend is already clear.
But the real risk lies in what happens when the bull market ends. The wealth management business benefits from a virtuous cycle during good times: investors add more money, asset values rise, assets under management grow, and fee income increases.
In a downturn, this cycle reverses viciously. Investors redeem their holdings in unit trusts, bond funds, private credit products, and private equity vehicles. Asset values fall, AUM contracts, and fee income declines. Negative growth in wealth management would deal a significant blow to DBS's earnings at precisely the moment when its other revenue streams are also weakening.
The Dividend Trap
Unsustainable Payout Ratios
Singapore banks have historically maintained a 50 percent dividend payout ratio — paying out half their earnings as dividends while retaining the other half to grow the business. This balanced approach provides shareholders with income while maintaining the bank's capacity for growth.
DBS has abandoned this discipline. For full year 2025, the payout ratio surged to 80 percent. For 2026, with management raising dividends even as earnings decline, the payout ratio is projected to reach 90 percent.
This escalation is driven by a problematic incentive structure: senior management holds substantial stock options and is deeply incentivised to support the share price. Raising dividends boosts investor confidence and props up the stock, even when the underlying economics do not support it.
Historical Precedent for Dividend Cuts
DBS has cut dividends before during down cycles. Examining the annual reports from the year 2000, 2008, and 2020 reveals a consistent pattern: during downturns, DBS typically reduces its dividend by approximately 20 percent.
If earnings decline by 10 to 20 percent in a recessionary scenario — entirely plausible given the three headwinds described above — the bank simply cannot maintain a 90 percent payout ratio. The dividends that are attracting investors at current prices may prove to be a mirage.
The 90 percent payout ratio may be sustainable for 2026, but by 2027, a dividend cut becomes highly probable.
The Cyclical Reality
Banking Is Not a Growth Stock
Many retail investors have been lulled into treating DBS as a one-way bet — a stock that moves in a perpetual straight line upward. The two-year chart reinforces this illusion, showing an almost unbroken ascent.
But banking is inherently cyclical. The industry expands during periods of economic growth and credit expansion, then contracts during downturns as bad loans mount and margins compress. The correct strategy is to buy during the down cycle and sell during the up cycle. The current moment represents the top of the cycle.
Historical Crash Magnitude
A review of DBS's price history reveals that the stock has experienced crashes of 40 to 60 percent on at least five occasions:
1. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis — severe decline
2. 2000 Dotcom Bubble — significant correction
3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis — major crash
4. 2015 European Crisis — approximately 40 percent drop
5. 2020 COVID Lockdown — sharp decline from $28 to $16
The notion that "this time is different" and DBS will only ever go up is contradicted by three decades of market history.
The Bear Case: $30 by End of 2027
Combining the valuation analysis, earnings headwinds, and historical crash patterns, the case for a significant DBS decline is straightforward.
The stock has likely peaked at the $60 level. Three consecutive years of lower earnings are expected for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Full year 2026 earnings are projected to come in 5 to 10 percent below the previous year. The fourth quarter 2025 results already confirmed this trajectory — the bank missed estimates and earnings plunged 10 percent.
A 50 percent pullback from the $60 peak to $30 would bring the stock to approximately 1.2 times book value — a level consistent with historical valuations during down cycles and a price that represents genuine value for long-term investors.
This decline will not happen overnight or in a straight line. The stock will likely trend lower over the next two years in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. But the direction of travel is clear.
Conclusion
DBS at $60 presents a fundamentally different proposition than DBS at $20. At $20 during the COVID crash, the stock offered a generational buying opportunity — one times book value for a blue-chip bank facing temporary headwinds. The fear was palpable, and the reward for contrarian courage was substantial.
At $60, the situation is reversed. Retail investors are euphoric, the payout ratio has been stretched to breaking point, three distinct earnings headwinds are converging, and the stock trades at roughly twice its normalised fair value. The risk-reward calculus now favours the bears.
For investors currently holding DBS, the honest assessment is that future returns at this price level are likely limited to dividend income, with meaningful capital gains nearly impossible given the elevated valuation. The decision to hold or sell is personal, depending on individual circumstances and risk appetite. But for those considering new purchases at $58 to $60, the warning is clear: chasing DBS at all-time highs in the face of deteriorating fundamentals is a recipe for pain.
Show raw transcript with timestamps
Okay. Well, come all. So, today master is just sitting on the swing just like the stock market like that is swinging up and down, up and down. Wow. Many retail investors are very scared, very worried. Are you worried about DBS? DBS I think has picked at the $60 level and I think it's coming down. My target price for DBS is $30. By the end of 2027, I believe that DBS will reach 30 S dollar. So I think most investors in the Singapore market would disagree with me. That is very understandable. I can understand. So today I want to share my views on DBS. Let me tell you a story. I was actually a ex shareholder of DBS when it was 2020. We had the lockdowns,
we had the virus. Am I right? So DBS picked at $28 and crashed significantly. I bought 10,000 shares at an average price of about 20 S dollar putting in about $200 Singapore dollar into DBS average price about $20 and many I would say sour folks said that I was a fool I'm stupid or these people are from hardware zone forum and investing note they said that master you are so foolish to buy into DBS. You don't know how to read the news headline now lockdown. You know, many businesses cannot even operate. Banks will suffer from bad loans. They will take a bit big hit. Banks cut dividends by 20%. Is only going to get
worse. Buying DBS at $20 is stupid. Then one Japanese lady wrote very boldly and she had many followers. She says that DBS will crash to $6. No $6, no buy. Wow. Cap cap cap. Oh, sorry. Today I use another one hand to hold on to the stick. Yeah. So when DBS was falling, everybody was pessimistic and we saw a sharp selldown during the lockdown period. Many retail investors, paper hand, they sold out of their bank shares. DBS, OCBC, OB, they sold out because they were fearful. They could not stand all the negative headlines. They only think that things will get worse. DBS continued to fall from $20 to a low of $16.
And then they say, "Master, you see, I'm right. You are wrong. After you bought at $20, DBS continue to drop. Now it's $16, but $16 I won't buy because it's going to go lower. $12, $10, $6, then I will buy. So they kept waiting and waiting and waiting. What happened? In the end, we had a V-shaped recovery, a very sharp recovery. One year later, DBS recovered to $3, breaking a new high. and I sold all my 10,000 shares to take profits. I realized a 50% capital gain on my position on DBS. That's good enough for me. That's good enough for me. Yeah. I just held DBS for like one and a half year and I made 50% returns, a net gain of 100,000 S dollars. And these folks on forums, they continue
to criticize me. They say master you are stupid for selling DBS. Look now it's going higher. It will only go much higher. You rotate DBS into Alibaba. It's a big mistake and yes it was a big mistake or my my purchase in Alibaba was too early. I bought Alibaba at too high of a price and I shared my mistake on Alibaba. So after I sold Alibaba and Pop Next to take profits, the proceeds went into Alibaba and I was stuck on Alibaba for 4 years. 4 years. So Pop Next is is actually the same thing also. So Prop next, right? I think it IPO at a price of 65 cents. After it had the IPO, government did some cooling measures. Prop next. Oh, due to the cooling measures, due to the virus lockdowns, people cannot go and view property. Property transactions was slow. Popn pops crashed to 50 cents. And I went in
to buy. I bought 200,000 shares of Pop Nex. Average price about 50 cents. So, it's about 100,000 Singapore dollars. So, for me, my portfolio is usually very concentrated. Please please do not all try to cop copy my ideology. It might not suit everyone. So back then was the same thing. Everybody tell you that property market very bad. Lockdown cannot do transaction. Things will only get worse. Businesses will go bankrupt. Experts are leaving Singapore. Condo cannot rent out. Property new launch cannot sell. Popnex gone case. I went in and buy because popn I was paying like five times earnings for popn and they are a net cash company. I know that eventually the property market will recover. Property agency like popn which is the market leader with the biggest market share will recover and prop uh two years later doubled to $1 and I sold
it away. I realized a capital gain of 100% 100,000 sing dollar. So the lesson learned from this short story is to be greedy when others are fearful. When a great company like DBS or popn crashes, you go in and study the fundamentals. What is the long-term fundamentals? Is it still in tech? If the answer is yes and they are just facing short-term weakness is an opportunity to buy and you can only buy such great companies when investors are very emotional and very sentiments driven. They see nothing but the negatives. That's why they are selling. I bought DBS at $20 because someone is selling it to me. I bought props at 50 cents because someone is selling out to me. the the one that sold to me is because they only see gloom and doom. They think that prop is gone case,
DBS is gone case. That that's why I can buy at such a low price. And when he recovered, I took my profits 50% on DBS, 100% on props. I'm happy with it. It's good enough for me. Making 200,000 net gains on DBS on props. That's good enough for me. Yes. Subsequently, pop nets continue to go much higher. DBS continue to go much higher. So be it. Nobody can time the top. Nobody is perfect. But at least I didn't lose money. And I know that my methodology works. And now I'm doing the exact same thing. Recently I shout all in on the Chinese tech companies because many of these blue chip Chinese tech companies, they are down 20 to 40% from the peak. They have crashed already and investors are too fearful. So I go in to buy all these highquality names. I be greedy when others are fearful.
What I see in the Singapore market now is the opposite. From fear in 2020, now it has turned into greed in 2026. Two years ago, three years ago, when the STI, SH times index was at the 3,000 points, nobody was interested in the Singapore market. They say that it's been going sideways for 10 years. You just collect the 4% dividends. It's very boring. Singapore market is a dinosaur market. You should be in the US market, which is more exciting. So, all the retail investors or through discount brokers, they invest in the US market. They don't like the Singapore market. From 3,000 points, it went to 5,000 points. And now everybody is telling you that the SH times index is a very good market. Invest in Singapore market for dividend and for growth. Wow. Sentiments have changed. Everyone is so optimistic on the Singapore economy on this
Singapore bluechip companies. They think that STI DBS will continue rising. Do you know that the DBS is one quarter of the straight times index? He has a 25% weightage. So DBS is a reflection of the STI. If DBS comes down, STI will also come down or so DBS I think is very overvalued. Yesterday I covered the the results. The book value is slightly more than $24. Many retail investors do not even know what is the book value of DBS. And you go and ask all these retail investors what is the payout ratio for DBS. They also don't know. In the past, typically our Singapore banks do a 50% payout ratio. Meaning that for every $1 they earn, they pay out 50 cents in dividends and they retain the 50 cents to grow their business. Am I right? So the banks are a mix of growth and
dividends. This time around is different. Our Singapore banks, they are no longer growing. They are stagnant. And I warn about this already. Full year 2025 DBS earnings came down sharply. But the fourth quarter results is very alarming. It misestimates earnings plunch 10%. Things are going to get worse in 2026 this year. The management has guided that net interest margin will continue to compress and fullear net profits for 2026 will be slightly lower than the previous year. It means two consecutive years of lower earnings. And I can tell you 2027 it will also be lower earnings. A lot of retail investors do not understand that the banking business is cyclical in nature. It is not a growth stock. It's actually a cyclical industry. You want to buy during the
down cycle and sell during the upcycle. And now we have picked. We are at the top of the cycle. It's time to sell and take profits on DBS, not financial advice. So DBS is no longer growing. They don't see the opportunities. That's why they are paying more cash from their earnings. If you take last year dividend fourear dividends against their earnings is a payout ratio of 80%. They pay out 80% of their earnings as dividends for full year 2025. For this year 2026 earnings will be coming down yet they are raising dividends. So it's contradicting am I right? your earnings come down by right your dividend should also come down should actually pay out less to be prudent to be conservative to manage your balance sheet but no no no the upper management have so much stock options they are so vested in the
company's stock price they must not will not allow DBS stock price to plunge so they raise the dividends to boost investors confidence that pushes the payout ratio to 90%. Is this sustainable? My answer is no. No. This 90% payout ratio is only sustainable if earnings can be maintained. But I believe there's a high probability that in 2026 and going into 2027 we are heading into a global down cycle which could turn into a global recession. When a recession comes banks their earnings get hurt. If their earnings drop by 10 to 20% then they cannot meet the payout. then they will have to reduce their dividends. Have DBS reduced their
dividends before? The answer is yes. Go and check back the annual report at the year 2000. Check back their annual report at 208 and 2020. During a down cycle, DBS typically cut their dividends by 20%. Will the down cycle come? I do not know, but I think there's a high probability. So for banks their business is simple. You put fixed deposit. They borrow the money from you paying you 1% interest. They take the money they lend out for house loan, car loan, corporate loan at a higher rate and they make the difference. So now banks when they lend out the money they are earning a lower interest rate because the 3 month sora is coming down, the borrowing cost is coming down, the floating rate is coming down. So they are earning less interest income. To make up for it, they push strongly on wealth management. Wealth management the year before was growing
at like 40%. Last year was 29%. This year the guidance is about 15%. So everybody still expects growth for wealth management. But why what what I ask you this question? What if the US bull market ends? investors instead of putting more and more money into these wealth products, they actually withdraw their funds. They don't want to touch all these unit trust, they don't want to touch all these bond funds or they don't want uh to do all those funny stuff like private credit or uh private equity. They redeem everything. Then how what will you do? Oh, so the net asset value or sorry the AUM uh asset under management will actually come lower. So banks when they in the times are good the wealth management business the asset under management keeps growing because
investors put in money number one and number two the net asset value of all these products grow because of the boom market. So when there's more asset under management, they earn more recurring fees. Am I right? So when they earn more recurring fees, that's growth and that's the effects of the bull market. But when the bare market comes, then the effects will be in reverse. The AUM declines, wealth management fees decline and you will see negative growth and that will be very problematic. That will hurt their earnings a lot. Then go back to just now I share with you your banks take the money and they lend out car loan and house loan typically is very safe because example you do a property loan the property buyer puts 25% down and they only borrow 75%. I don't think home prices will fall below uh 20 25%. So no matter what you can always get back the principle. So what worries me
is corporate loans. Last year Autoban and Kate Cineipex went bankrupt. I ask you this year do you think there will be more localmemes small and media enterprises going bankrupt or less? I tell you there will be more and there will be more bad loans. That's why OB they are prudent. They take the provisions in advance. They tell you the bad news this year uh last year 2025 rather than this year. DBS they refuse to tell you the bad news. They refuse to tell you the bad news. But this year I believe there's a high chance they will report to you the bad news that they're going to take provisions. They're going to write down on their bad debt and it will hurt their earnings. So there's three negatives that will hurt DBS earnings. Number one, lower net interest margins. Number two will be all the bad loans appearing and they will take
provisions and it will hurt their earnings. And number three, wealth management contracting. So all these three will pull and drag DBS earnings down for 2026 and 2027. Then the question goes back to dividends. They already doing a 90% payout ratio. So if their earnings comes down, earnings comes down, then can they sustain the dividend payout? My answer is no. Yeah. So maybe the dividends can be sustained for 2026, but 2027 very likely DBS will have to cut dividends. It's just my personal view. Like today what I share is all my personal view. Nobody has a crystal ball to 100% predict the future. So I may be wrong or don't listen to me, I'm a fool, I'm a idiot or I'm just a crazy Master Leong. Yeah. Yeah. See, my name is Master Leong. Who will be so crazy to call themselves Master Leong? So don't listen to me. Listen to all the retail
investors telling you that DBS is the best. DBS will go to $70, $80. DBS is the most solid blue chip in Singapore or it will never fail. So be it. But you think logically when DBS is $20, $30, nobody wanted to buy. DBS now at 58, $59, $60, everyone for more fear of missing out, rushing in to buy into DBS. It's not a good good sign. Retail investors, they do not know how to look at the fundamentals. They invest based on their emotions. When everything looks positive, everyone is buying, they go in and buy DBS at all-time high. When DBS is cheap, they don't buy. When I purchased it at $20, it was trading at one times book value. So, one times book value is the price that I will buy DBS. What is the book value of DBS now? $24. Yeah. If DBS crash to $24, uh, then I
will be buying aggressively. But if it comes to $30, I may consider buying it which is 1.2 times uh book value. So sometimes um my viewers ask me master how I value banks. So banks they make this actually a very capital intensive business. So we tend to look at the book value because they make a return from the assets. So let's say a bank can generate 10% return on equity and the book value is $10. So 10% return on equity they generate $1 earning per share. If you are willing to pay 10 times earnings uh 10 times return on equity and demand a 10% return uh you earnings you then you will pay $10 for this company. If they can generate higher return on equity, let's say 15% return on equity.
So $10 book value, they can generate $150 of earnings, then investors might be willing to pay 15 times sorry uh $15 for this bank or which is like 1.5 times book value. So how much to pay for the bank depends on the book value and depends on the return on equity. Like one times book value 10% return on equity for expected 10% returns. If you maintain the same 10% expected returns you can invest in a bank that is generating 15% return equity. You might pay 1.5 times uh book value. So DBS is now trading at 2.5 times book value. Does it generate 25% return on equity? The answer is no. The recent full year results, the return on equity is 16%. So a fair value for DBS is actually 1.6
times book value. But this is also misleading because the banks are cyclical. The earnings are now high because of the high net interest margin. But a a more normalized return on equity for DBS would be like 1.3 times uh book value 13% return on equity. Yeah. So now uh DBS is trading at twice its fair value. The fair value is more like 1.3 times book value, 13% return equity. But now it's trading at 2.5 times book value. So I think that DBS is now super overvalued. So the upside is limited. The downside is huge. Yeah. If it comes down to let's say $1.3 times book value, that will be give you a stock price of maybe $32 or $33. Yeah. But I think I will only pay 1.2
times book value or lower for DBS, which is $30 S or lower. Ideally, I want to buy DBS at one times book value or which is about $24 sing dollars. Yeah. So, will DBS come down to $30, $24? Nobody knows. But if you look at the historical price movement of DBS, DBS historically has crashed 40 to 60% I think on four occasions. Yeah. So number one is the Asia financial crisis 1997. Uh number two is the dotcom bubble in the year 2000. Number three 208 global financial crisis and the fourth time it crashed was the 2020 20 uh the covid lockdown period and I think in 2015 the European crisis DBS the stock price also plunged I think by 40%. So in this five
down cycle, DBS typically plunges 40 to 60%. From the peak. So don't be naive to think that DBS only moves one straight line up. Look at the past 2-year charts. DBS went all the way up. But it's actually cyclical in nature. It can go up a lot, but it can also come down 40 to 60%. My personal gut feel based on my feeling is that DBS has picked at the $60 Singapore dollar level. So a down cycle is coming. So it won't happen overnight. It won't happen immediately. It won't come down one straight line. It won't come down one straight line. Or you go dingdong ding dong ding dong. But I think DBS will be trending down over the next two years. DBS will be trending down over the next two years. And I think it will come to as low as 30 S dollar. A 50% pullback from the pig. A 50% crash from the pig of $60 S. So this is just my
personal warning. Don't for chase. Please do not buy DBS at 58, $59, $60. You going to get hurt. Yeah. So whether to continue holding or to sell is your own personal decision. Don't ask me whether you should sell or you should continue holding or not. It's your own personal decision because everyone the age and risk appetite is different. I would say that at the current situation is that when you hold DBS, you're only getting the dividends. It's almost impossible to get uh capital gains already because valuations are just so high. But I may be wrong. The others may be right. DBS might go to 70 or $80. I don't know. I don't know. But it's more likely that DBS has picked and it will head towards uh $30 over the next 24 months. This just my personal guess. I may be totally wrong. Not financial advice. I'm not long. I'm not short on DBS. I'm just a random Singaporean uncle
talking nonsense. I know that DBS is now like a cult stock. So many people are vested in DBS. So many people have a strong belief and conviction that DBS can do no wrong. But I tell you, look at the fourth quarter results. Clearly, it shows you all the signs that the numbers are worsening. And 2026, the earnings will be worse. Full year 2026, I expect DBS to report 5 to 10% lower earnings for the full year. And this weakness will persist into the end of 2027. So it will be three consecutive years of lower earnings. 2025 2026 2027. Three consecutive years of lower earnings. How are they going to sustain the high dividend payout ratio? Also the 90% dividend payout ratio is very dangerous and is not sustainable. Just my personal
view. I may be wrong. So that's all my sharing. Take care all. Bye-bye.